tv Fast Money CNBC November 8, 2019 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
you have seen the market slowdown and flatten out in the last few days. that may be a breather >> "fast money" is next. and then jim's veteran's day special of course, "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. we are out of time have a great weekend. thanks for watching "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlook new york city times square this is "fast money. i'm mella lee. our traders on the desk steve grasso brian kelly pb dan nathan and guy adami. tonight lion gate vice chairman michael burns breaks down the company and streaming wars a big week for bonds and the chart master has one chart that he says could be a perfect buying opportunity and later we'll reveal today's mystery chart down more than 4% this week. hmm? bk has hope for it yet we'll find out why he is optimistic but beginning with earning season things may wind down but for retail heating up
next week getting results from wal-mart and jcpenney then kicking into high gear barreling toward black friday. is there a giant moment of truth for the consumer. >> everybody says about the healthy of the consumer. never underestimate the u.s. consumer want to spend doesn't mean they should be spending they have jobs that's great as long as the stock market goes higher every day whether people have a dollar or not in it they will spend money because they feel the economy is doing better that's the calculus i make with the all-time high in the stock market i think the consumer continues to spend doesn't mean some of the stocks are going higher but the consumer will spend. if you want to play the stocks, i think in the next thursday a name like nordstroms which had great trading ranges over the last couple of years, yes it's bounced off the low but you have a huge short interest, reasonable valuation and we find ourselves time and time again in in environment these big short interest retailers tend to do well into earnings
imprisoning that's the way to play it. >> it feels we're in an interesting spot in terms of the earnings season for the retailers. we dope know if the tariffs on december 15th go into effect the guidance isn't going to be the guidance we would hope if they nounsed officially december 15th is off the table. >> i think it's difficult to do that analysis in this environment. the best you can do is what guy is talking about and you look at sentiment. university of michigan sentiment today was decent held up. that tend to be somewhat of a leading indicator. does turn with a little bit of head of the stock market if we get a stock market tailwind into the holidays with consumers already feeling well, then i think they should hold up well that being said, i was a little surprise surprised how wal-mart traded today it traded horribly down towards the lows of the day. it's already had quit a run. so when you look at these retailers look at those that maybe haven't had that much of a run. >> very interesting, the xrt, president etf tracking the
retail seccer, in mid-august made a 52-week low traded below the low from december of 2018 i think the point about guidance is a good one. you may see he deeson back to school numbers but not a whole heck of a lot of clarity some of the stocks you mentioned more nordstroms rallied 15% off lows the dpchlt rt while 20% off the lows it's well below the 52-week highs last year. to your point about the wal-mart some of the big box has done heavy lifting. costco, wal-mart, target and macy's we talked about last night could it they ral judge? yeah there will be good trading opportunity. >> for the reach is it for the laggards or winner self you want longer term go with wal-mart, target, kiosk costco short covering macy's jwn but it's very binary. >> but in this market away from the value trades and the
consumer state your nameles and utilities, is that an environment in which wal-mart and target still win >> i think you see people i think bought wal-mart regardless of valuation they looked at it -- listen, earnings have been fine. i think they were pouring money into a stock paying a dividend, seems to be recession proof and that stock won now people say to b.k.'s point does this make sense in terms of valuation? i don't think it does. but i don't think it did $15 ago. so in terms of the xrt dan makes a gad point. but if look in terms of the xrt major double bottom at the 8.5 that dan is staring at at the trm nall this will overshoot to the upside and the overshoot is probably 46.5 or 47. >> target blew out in august blew out eps up 24%. digital up 38% so i don't know if you could say -- they are overvalued. >> nobody saying they are not performing or executing they are questioning the valuation.
>> but that's the point and see i think you have to go to what is performing. and maybe you get a better -- a higher multiple on the stocks that is traditional. >> i think you want to be careful of the ones that have already popular performed. tjx boekt broke out to a an all-time high in the last month or so. look at starbucks, mcdonald's, i know we talked about those, making all-time highs this summer, trading at preems yums to the market and many pierce and done nothing but sell off over the last two quarters another name i throw in the basket and other stuff going on nike in the last couple weeks. a few weeks ago broke out surprised on comps now become at 90 at the breakout level. >> splook at tjx and roth stores they benefitted from retailers pulling forward ahead of the tariffs. they had the overstock and sell off to a tgx and ross stores if you don't have the the tariff do they give some back. >> they might. they've had the run already.
you're predisposed to sell those. if i'm trading into the numbers going into next week i'm looking at macy's right because they have the high short interest $15 seems decent support on this i know what i'm shooting against. and i have the possibility that even if there is bad news there is going to be some short covering on the bad news and might hold it up. >> you know some of you guys appear on the other program i host, power lunch. >> i like that. >> 2:00 eastern time steve grasso on on halloween we played a game. >> what scares you. >> trick or treat stocks he said the scariest stock was macy's which you bk and dan at least seem to like for a trade. >> it's a short interest of 26%. anything with a short interest above 15% is susceptible to pop higher the problem is if this fails and this continues the downward trend line you are looking at another jcpenney in the making here if it dips below $10, et cetera it's getting ugly very fast.
>> i wouldn't disagree with that this is a pure trade for me. i'm not saying macy's turned anything around by any means i think maybe the sentiment got extended to the downside. >> from retail tos rates now bond yield seeing a big rally at stocks hit all-time highs but the chart master says now the perfect time to buy bonds. carter is breaking it down at the plasma >> let's try to explain the whole thing if it's explainable. what we know is starting the year we were at 3% and consensus among let's say 50 economists that are supposed to come up with a projection for the year ahead was that we would go to 3.25 inconveniently of course we dropped to 1.4 instead and we are hear we are now i think after all the jockeying for position, rates are basically where they belong and if anything i think you back away a little bit. but let's draw lines and see if we can figure it out so a lot of overhead supply. you have returned to a level
where you are starting to struggle another way to draw the lynn, same exact chart, right to adown trend where we have come up against trouble every time and then intsz of a trend line use a moving average, same principle, the reciprocal of this this the -- my hunch is you get a bit of a bounce. and the frenzy, overshooting to downside at 19.4 and now back at 2% level it's where they belong, if you will with the potential for rates to back down to 1.7. therefore. >> come on over, carter we'll bring the chair in >> wow come on over. >> he is in the pantheon. >> it's amazing. >> if you're a pantheon it's like -- >> automatic. >> get out of jail free card. >> got the muk back. >> because the silence was kind of creepy. >> awkward
>> does this mean that you should still or can still be in the dividend proxy trades, the utilities, et cetera. >> obviously global banks, u.s. banks, regionals, money center banks they don't call them anymore but those all of a time have moved in response or ahead of however you want to characterize this move in rates. and yet the move in rates from 1.4, 1.45 to 1.95 is back to an inherently difficult level you have expended a lot of energy and don't carry through and start printing 2.2 or 2.4 which is starting to become the flavor of the day, which is all of a sudden end of times now people project the other way. i think it's time to bet the other way yet again. >> let's do some cross market analysis then. we have seen the dollar go up as rates go up. we have seen the stock market go up as rates go up, which is different than we have seen. does that mean the stock market is in danger does it mean the dollar is in danger >> well, the interesting thing is also of course we have seen
gold behave a certain way, right? my hunch is that it's not a market issue but a retation issue. the rotation that's occurred in the beaten down cyclical names have gone too far and if rates don't follow through much you'll get profit taking in big moves in banks and industrials >> does it -- i mean, does it matter what we see in the u.s. is being confirmed by global rates, that it's not just the u.s. moving in isolation >> right, but rates are almost moving globally to some extent. >> yeah. >> basically the directional element to it is sort of uniform. yes, rates have popped everywhere but that's just it, they have come along way, they popped. >> all right, carter thank you carter braxton worth. >> we are will see him on "options action." >> the collective we or we. >> the collective we. >> mel look look looked at me the two smarter guys on the deck
will be on. >> thank you appreciate that quickly conned edison, dan maid a cogent argument yesterday it's bounding against the trend lineup conedison holding its trend line you can buy conedison if you believe the rates are heading lower. >> the vice chairman of lions gate will give us the low down on the box office and what the streaming wars mean for the industry and lions gate. unof the traders unveil the chart of the week and and why he is seeing a golden opportunity that's a hint. live from times square in new york city. much more "fast money" right after this ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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welcome back to "fast money. shares of layens gate surging more than 11 percents. nopg the best day since may. after the starz unit added 1.2 million streaming subscribers posting better than expected earnings and revenue. now joined buy michael burns vice chair of lions gate nice to see you again. >> nice to see you as well. >> the earnings report good across the board according to a lot of the analyst on the street the stock you see responding to it up 10%. but it seems the dominant issue
at least in the analyst and wall street community is the carriage issue with comcast and what's going on there there is one firm that cut a price target because of the uncertainty surrounding whether or not starz would be on comcast in part of the bundle or would it be an extra surcharge for subscribers? what's the latest there. >> it's a head scratcher for us, melissa. we have been a great supplier to comcast for quite sometime it's a great value proposition that we give them. and ultimately they pass on to subscribers. so it's odd for us that they would be saying we are taking you out of the bundle, put a couple of channels that we own and another one in that bundle not giving a discount or rebite are bait back to customers they say you can get it through amazon or some other place which is sort of disingenuous. because what happens is in that
particular case in an underserved community. if half of americans canned afford to write a $500check. half of american families, to say yes take it out of the bundle you pay for it as if there. and on top of that get broad band and some equipment and you can subscriber to amazon prime, another $120 some dollars a month and charge you the ala carte fee. >> the importance of the agreement to starz is big, about 40% of domestic starz eentda from comcast about a third of domestic subs. the warning and see december 10th is when this -- they could -- i was going to say cut the cord that's not the right terminology but take starz off of the bundle. when was the agreement going to go to? wasn't it just to the end of the year anyway. >> they say december 10th.
our deal is until the end of december again that's an odd thing for us because if you go on the comcast website and look at xfinity, you can sign up and one of the two or three big bundles they sell or market or on the website which includes starz saying if you sign up for a one or two-year deal starz is included in the pricing. what toes that mean tend of december all of a sudden it disappears that to me seems rather disingenuous. >> has lions gate been trying to get the doj to open a form investigation into this? is there an informal investigation going on in which you are cooperating with the doj? >> well i read the new yorks like everybody in new york seems to read. i think that they've got letters from very prominent u.s. senators, very prominent congress people around the country be the oddest thing for sus if you look at the business round table which i know the comcast people
were signers on, they talk about taking care of their suppliers, customers and communities. this sort of flies in the face of that. so do i think the doj is looking into it? i would say that would be a question for them. i will tell you that if i were working at the doj and i was getting letters from u.s. senators and congress people, as well as consumer groups out there, i might take a look at that. >> all right we should note that comcast is the pannarat company of this network. just for housekeeping matters. in terms of how this plays into the streaming wars michael, it seems that some people are saying maybe it's a great time to spin starz or tell it you can reduce debt, get out of the streaming wars entirely and focus on content content is king in this streaming war scenario what would you say to to that? is that a possibility. >> our -- john talked about this on the conference call yesterday. one of our jobs here is to highlight the value of what we
put together and if you take a look at what lion's gate and starz can do together, whether an international launch -- we're in 50 countries right now -- you couldn't do that -- starz couldn't do that without lions gate and the 17,000 title library and the ability to distribute this around the globe. so the industrial logic what have we are doing makes a great deal of sense. yes the world in some cases is moving to ala carte and we are looking for a thoughtful transition and that's what most partners have been doing the people can take the bundle or get it ala carte process. but for us we believe the industrial logic of what we put together is working. all of our core businesses are going and quite well i'm happy to report -- it looks like -- i don't want to jinx it but mid-way will be the number one movie opening. and the numbers from joe drake and his team, they turned that around nicely. television is crushing it.
we are this giant creator of skoe content. it comes down to great people and creating great content and lions gate is doing that. >> great to speak with you thank you for your time. >> melissa thanks so much. >> michael burns, vice clarm of lions gate what do you do lions gate. >> you look at the stock, a $32 stock in january of 2018 you see now. despite the move today, less than $10 the quarter if you look at the numbers, the quarter outstanding. you can make an argument the valuation is extended. i get it but i still continue to believe it's too valuable of a property to be trading as poorly as it had the last 20 or so months. >> how much is netflix spending on content this year $8 billion. >> higher. >> market cap of lions gate is $2 billion sounds to me like they should be hitting this from a different angle and maybe they get put --
instead of the acquirer get akwoird by somebody else and then you have a ready to make shop there. and you have some content. you have the studios in place. these things aren't easy to do and sounds lake a no brain are to me. >> there is more come up on "fast money" after the break here is what we have on the docket. >> gold bug or decline bull both under pressure this woke later earnings season is winding down but there is still opportunities to cash in on results. we'll take a look at how options markets are getting ready for what's to come when "fast money" returns. sundown vitamins are all non-gmo, made with naturally sourced colors and flavors and are gluten & dairy free. they're all clean all the time. even if sometimes we're not. sundown vitamins.
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look at that animation. >> i love it. >> official. b.k. flag this it's bitcoin versus gold why did this stand out to you. >> it's not just because bitcoin. certainly i'm fan of that. what i thought was twag interesting. both bitcoin and gold trade traded in tandem for a good portion. this we can we saw the same thing. gold came on bitcoin came off. dollar stronger. but what's different about this you expand that chart and move back and look at what happened, earlier in the week this is bitcoin in orange. and gold flat. bitcoin up about 17% over the last ten days or so where gold is down. why is that? because china came out and said we are going to embrace blockchain at this point in time people have taken that to mean that cryptocurrency and bitcoin benefit from that. the point is don't be fooled by gold and bitcoin going down. they appear to be decoupling at this point in time. >> there is a story that china was going to allow bitcoin
mining. >> yes. >> and wasn't a prohibited industry i was wondering what -- i couldn't figure out if that was bade for bitcoin or gad for bitcoin. >> i think it's very good for bitcoin. two things good for bitcoin. one, the fact that they already have the mining in there and it's been going on a while but now it's not prohibited activity the second thing is ner likely going to license cryptocurrency exchanges in hong kong, some being cheyennes chinese exchanges. those two things are probably fairly bullish for bitcoin at this point. >> investors who allocate a certain percentage to gold, you still believe that digital gold is the way to go. >> right. >> and should be in there with the portfolio. >> it's got the same investment thesis with an asset much more volatile with much more upside it's only a fraction of the market cap of gold it's just got a lot more upside in combine. >> quickly on gold biggest weekly decline in two years. >> very rough if you look. new month mining had trouble since july basically bucking up
against this level and failing i think it's an opportunity. i don't personally believe the gold story to the upside is over yet melissa. >> guy adami final trade, steven grasso. >> i never talk about this air transport services group stsg look at it you'll find it interesting. >> b.k., brian kelly. >> we haven't talked about in a while areas of the country we haven't talked about e m, emerging markets. >> carter just on talking about the rates thinking they come in i think they do too i'll tell you how to play it in tlt options the big show. >> the final trade, may i ask a question. >> sure. >> the chart of the week that's a segment does that happen on fridays by definition or could it happen any day of the week. >> i think typically fridays >> how would you know it's it's if it's the chart of the week on monday. >> i'm not sure. >> we have our main man kevin flynn you can have a chat after the show. >> by the way -- yes was, he is here. >> as dan nathan mentioned yesterday if you believe the tlt to the downside, rates going
higher is over which i believe the conedison the selloff to me is interesting. >> that's do it for fast don't go anywhere. "options action" is up next. whether your beauty routine is 3 steps... or 57, make nature's bounty hair skin and nails step one. it's the number one brand uniquely formulated for silky hair, glowing skin and healthy nails. nature's bounty, because you're better off healthy. man: can i find an investment firm that has a truly long-term view? it begins by being privately owned. with more than 85 years of experience over multiple market cycles. with portfolio managers who are encouraged to do what's right over what's popular. focused on helping me achieve my investors' unique goals. can i find an investment firm that gets long term the way i do? with capital group, i can. talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information.
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discover the option that's best for you. call today and find out more. i'm proud to be a part of aag, i trust em, i think you can too. happy friday "options action," fans we have a big show on deck here is what's coming up >> announcer: coming up tonight. >> mysteriously, the consumer discretionary sector has been failing to keep up with the broader market rally carter worth could solve the mystery. if it wasn't for you darn kids then. >> tilting sensation. >> no, not tilt. tlt, as in bonds and that strange sensation, that's dan nathan's bullish call he'll explain. plus -- >> disc